Afghanistan: the threat of hunger, a return to opium production, refugees and the dim prospects of TAPI

The World Bank estimates for 2020 there are nearly 39 million people living in Afghanistan, 24 million of whom are at risk of famine this winter, Channel 4 News said in a TV report.

Despite assurances from the Taliban that they will fight drugs in Afghanistan, the country remains the largest opium producer.

Instead of vegetables and fruits, Afghan farmers have returned to growing sleeping pills, a raw material for drug production.

As one of the Afghan farmers told Bloomberg Quicktake, it is not profitable to grow vegetables now, since the borders are closed and there is no way to export products to foreign markets.

“A kilogram of potatoes on the local market sells for only 50 rupees ($ 0.55). With this money, we cannot even buy fertilizers, which cost 10 thousand rupees ($ 110). And for opium, buyers come to me on their own, I don't even need to go to the market, ”said the farmer.

Representative of the "Taliban" Zabiulla Mujahid ( Zabiulla Mujahid ) claims that the new government is trying to fight with the producers of the drug, but Afghanistan needs assistance of the international community. According to him, farmers need to be given an alternative opportunity to earn money.

At the same time, international assistance to Afghanistan could end if the country continues to grow poppy and produce opium, which is one of the few sources of income.

According to the UN, 120,000 people were involved in opium production in 2019.

Refugees are another major problem for Afghanistan and neighboring countries.

The UN estimates that some 3.5 million people who are still in Afghanistan have been displaced from their homes. Hundreds of thousands are trying to flee to neighboring countries.

Pakistan received about 3 million Afghan refugees, Iran - about 3.5 million, Tajikistan - about 100 thousand, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan only agreed to provide their airspace for evacuation flights.

Meanwhile, in an interview with Regnum, Russian political scientist and chief researcher at IMEMO RAS Alexei Malashenko expressed the opinion that the situation in Afghanistan could seriously threaten Turkmenistan.

“If suddenly some groups of Afghans go to Turkmenistan, the border will simply scatter. There are tribes, and they scatter to the oases. There will be no one left at the border. It simply won't get between Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, ”Malashenko explained.

In turn, the Taliban government, which turned out to be about a difficult economic situation, is actively trying to speed up the construction of the TAPI gas pipeline, thanks to which Afghanistan will be able to profit from the transit of gas through its territory.

As noted by Natural Gas World , at the last meeting with the Taliban in October 2021, Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov said that the Afghan side would be able to earn $ 500 million a year at TAPI. In 2017, Meredov promised Afghanistan twice as much - $ 1 billion annually.

However, former US Ambassador to Turkmenistan Steve Mann ( by Steve Mann ) doubts that the TAPI project will be implemented.

“Even if the arrival of the Taliban helps to ensure security inside Afghanistan, they will not be able to solve the serious problems of the project, including difficulties with financing, acceptability for banks, ownership of the pipeline and its operation,” Mann said.

The expert recalled that Pakistan has repeatedly demanded to revise the purchase prices. In 2020, Turkmenistan made concessions and agreed to reduce the cost of gas. In turn, due to bad relations with Pakistan, India may completely withdraw from the project.

Source: Chronicles of Turkmenistan

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