Meteozhurnal estimated losses in cotton and wheat harvest this year due to drought

The publication "Meteozhurnal" assessed the impact of the 2021 drought in Turkmenistan on grain and cotton yields.

Since Turkmenistan does not publish statistical data in the agricultural sector, experts compared the situation with the dry year of 1986, although they admit that the current drought according to the Standardized Precipitation Index was much stronger - 1.6-1.8 times.

More details about the study can be found on the website of the publication. Here are some brief conclusions.

Compared to 1985, in 1986, due to drought and a shortage of irrigation water, grain yields decreased by 14.2%, and cotton - by 23.9%.

Due to the fact that the drought this year was significantly stronger than in 1986, it is assumed that the wheat yield in 2021 could have decreased compared to 2020 by 15-30%, and cotton - by 10-20 %.

If we rely on official data, according to which 1.4 million tons of grain and 1.25 million tons of cotton are harvested in Turkmenistan annually, it turns out that this year's harvest losses will amount to 210-420 thousand tons of wheat and 125-250 thousand tons of cotton. The actual cost of a ton of wheat ranges from $ 230-319, and cotton - $ 2200 per ton.

“Thus, crop losses due to drought (if measured at world prices) of wheat and cotton alone could amount to hundreds of millions of dollars,” writes Meteozhurnal.

Source: Chronicles of Turkmenistan