Istanbul: The meeting planned in Trkiye on May 15 between Russia and Ukraine has become a focal point on the international stage. Trkiye sees this gathering as crucial for diplomatic mediation, aiming to foster dialogue between the parties. Ankara aspires to make this event a significant stride towards reducing tensions and resolving the ongoing conflict peacefully. However, the ambiguity surrounding Russian President Vladimir Putin's participation casts doubt on the potential outcomes of the talks.
According to Azeri-Press News Agency, the Russian delegation will likely be led by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the Istanbul talks. Experts express skepticism about Russia's commitment to genuine diplomacy. Ukraine's military-political analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko criticized Russia's approach, saying it is only creating an illusion of diplomacy while preparing for a large-scale military campaign in 2025. Kovalenko emphasized that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is willing to engage in dialogue only with Putin, stating that the absence of Putin indicates a lack of readiness for meaningful negotiations.
Questions regarding Russia's genuine interest in peace talks arise, considering its current geopolitical stance, influenced by military dynamics and Western sanctions. Kovalenko noted Russia's persistence in using ultimatums, rendering any diplomatic discussions ineffective. Although Zelenskyy's presence in Trkiye could benefit Ukraine, Russia's history of violating ceasefires undermines trust in its intentions.
Putin's absence from the talks may negatively impact negotiations, as direct leader engagement often carries political weight necessary for progress. However, even if Putin attended, Kovalenko doubts it would alter outcomes, as Putin's reluctance to engage in meaningful dialogue could hinder any advancement towards peace.
Darya Grevtsova, Deputy Director of the Russian Institute for Political Studies, suggested that Putin's absence might prevent theatrics, leading to more constructive discussions. She highlighted that the meeting could serve as a preparatory phase for future high-level talks between the two countries' leaders.
Expectations for achieving peace remain low, with potential agreements likely limited to technical issues like humanitarian concerns and prisoner exchanges. Kovalenko and Grevtsova both emphasize that while the initiation of dialogue is a positive step, deep-rooted disagreements, particularly over territorial integrity, make a comprehensive peace agreement unlikely in the current context.
Trkiye's role as a platform for these negotiations is crucial, with strong diplomatic ties between Trkiye and Ukraine fostering an environment conducive to dialogue. Kovalenko praised Trkiye's platform, citing President Erdogan's pragmatic approach, while Grevtsova noted that the main dialogue centers on Ukraine, Russia, and the USA, leaving Trkiye's additional role beyond hosting uncertain.