The assets of the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAR) may amount to $53.1 billion by 2024 with an average oil price of $80 per barrel in 2023. By the end of 2022, SOFAR's assets amounted to about $49 billion. Thus, in 2023, the growth of the fund's assets may amount to 8.4%. For June 30, 2023, SOFAR's assets are estimated at $54 billion 915.1 million against the background of less financing of planned expenses. According to the materials of the Ministry of Finance, several scenarios have been prepared for the change of SOFAR assets at different oil prices. In particular, with the basic option - the average oil price of $60 per barrel - during the current year, SOFAR assets (subject to 100% financing of planned expenditures) will reach $51.7 billion by 2024 (an increase of 5.5% compared to the indicator at the end of 2022.) With an average oil price of $70 per barrel during the current year, SOFAR assets will reach $52.4 billion by 2024 (an increase of 6.9%). In the materials of the Ministry of Finance, there is also an unfavorable scenario for the development of the situation - in the event of a decline in oil prices. In particular, with an average oil price of $50 per barrel during the current year, SOFAR assets will reach $50.3 billion by 2024 (an increase of 2.6%). At the same time, the Ministry of Finance points out that according to forecasts of international institutions, in 2023 the average price of Brent crude oil will be at least $75 per barrel, while the Azerbaijani authorities have set the average price of oil in the state budget at $60 per barrel. According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, with the average oil price in 2023 at $60 per barrel, SOFAR revenues will amount to 16.3 billion manats. At an average price of $70/bar, SOFAR's revenues this year may amount to 17.5 billion, at $80/bar - 18.7 billion manats. If oil prices fall to $50/bar, SOFAR revenues in 2023 will amount to 15.1 billion manats, if average oil prices fall to $40/bar, then the revenues of the State Oil Fund this year will amount to 13.9 billion manats. The Ministry of Finance also pointed out that the rise/fall in oil prices by an average of $10 per barrel leads to an increase/decrease in the revenues of the consolidated budget of Azerbaijan by an average of 1.3-1.4 billion manats per year.

Source: Turan News Agency