New York: Wall Street share futures experienced a rally in Asia on Monday following the White House's decision to exempt certain products such as smartphones and computers from the United States' "reciprocal" tariffs. However, the gains were tempered by President Donald Trump's indication that tariffs could still be implemented at a later date.
According to Azeri-Press News Agency, President Trump announced on Sunday that new tariffs on semiconductors would be revealed in the coming week, with decisions on tariffs for phones to follow "soon." The temporary exemption, which impacts 20 product categories accounting for 23% of US imports from China, was initially seen as a positive development for manufacturers. Nonetheless, the inconsistent policy shifts have left investors uncertain and analysts pessimistic about long-term outcomes.
Bruce Kasman, head of economics at JPMorgan, stated, "The post-Liberation Day back-pedalling has led some to breathe a sigh of relief. Not us. A 10% universal tax is still a very large shock and the huge 145% tax on China is prohibitive. You cannot stop trade between the world's two largest economies and not expect damage everywhere. We maintain our call for a 60% likelihood of a U.S./global recession."
After an initial surge, S and P 500 futures moderated their gains to 0.8% higher, while Nasdaq futures rose by 1.2%. Last week, the S and P 500 increased by 5.7%, yet remained over 5% below its pre-tariff announcement level in early April. EUROSTOXX 50 futures gained 2.6%, FTSE futures increased by 1.8%, and DAX futures rose 2.2%.
This week, the markets are anticipating earnings reports from major banks like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup. Additionally, results from chipmaker TSMC are expected to be significant due to Trump's plan to scrutinize the global semiconductor supply chain.
The upcoming week will also feature key economic data releases, including US retail sales and Chinese GDP figures. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook on Wednesday, where he is expected to address potential rate cuts and recent Treasury market volatility.
Early Monday, there was little sign of bond recovery, with 10-year yields at 4.48%, marking the largest weekly increase in borrowing costs in decades.
The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose by 1.6%, after a loss of more than 4% the previous week. Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) increased by 0.5%, benefiting suppliers of Apple gear. Japan's Nikkei added 1.6% (.N225), following recent volatility due to fluctuating tariff news.
Japanese officials are preparing for trade talks with the United States, which are expected to address currency policy. Some officials anticipate Washington might request Tokyo to support the yen, although the dollar's recent struggles might mitigate the need for intervention.
Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics, commented, "The key questions are around the indirect damage done through generating extreme uncertainty around the policy and economic outlook, the ongoing dislocations in the Treasury market and, ultimately, undermining confidence in U.S. institutions and asset markets."
The dollar faced pressure at 142.80 yen after reaching a six-month low of 142.05 last week. It was stable at 0.8169 Swiss francs, having dropped more than 5% last week to a decade low. The euro rose to $1.1384, nearing a three-year peak of $1.1474. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by a quarter point to 2.25% in its Thursday meeting. Canada's central bank also meets this week, with markets predicting a one-in-three chance of a rate cut from 2.75%.
In commodity markets, uncertainty has driven gold prices to record highs of $3,245 an ounce on Monday. Oil markets have struggled due to fears of a global economic slowdown and increased OPEC supply, although they found some support from potential disruptions to Iran's exports. Brent crude was down 17 cents at $64.59 a barrel, while US crude dropped 15 cents to $61.35 per barrel.